Is DXY about to bounce? Bitcoin's next big move might depend on it! (Bull or bear)
The DXY has bounced perfectly off its long-term trendline support near 99, a level that has historically preceded multi-month dollar rallies (2014, 2018, 2021).
Each of those cycles coincided with Bitcoin corrections of -79%, -68%, and -58%, as shown in the BTC chart.
Now, in Q4 2025, we’re seeing that same setup emerge again: DXY stabilizing from its base while Bitcoin hovers near cycle highs. Historically, these inflection points define the difference between “distribution” and “accumulation” phases for crypto.
If the dollar continues its bounce, risk assets could see a cooling phase before the next leg higher — aligning with the classic Bitcoin halving cycle lag.
But if DXY weakens from here, that would mark a rare divergence — one that could confirm crypto’s growing decoupling from traditional liquidity cycles.
Either way, this DXY-BTC divergence is the key macro chart to watch going into 2026.
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