Macro Trends to Watch Ahead of the August 2025 US CPI data
Markets remain in growth mode, but August often brings choppy trading.
Lower yields, strong earnings, and resilient crypto price action are supporting sentiment.
Key Events to Watch:
- US Core CPI (August 12): Could set the tone for rate-cut expectations. A softer print may reinforce liquidity flows into risk assets, while a hotter reading could cause a short-term pullback before dip buyers return.
- US Core PPI (August 14): Will signal whether producer inflation is easing, giving insight into corporate margins and pricing power.
1. Yields are Falling — Liquidity is Returning
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to multi-month lows, and the 2-year just saw its steepest fall since 2024.
Markets are now pricing in earlier Fed rate cuts, which is driving capital rotation into growth assets like tech and crypto.
2. Big Tech Keeps Delivering
Earnings from the MAG7 have beaten expectations, providing stability to equities despite macro uncertainty. Over half of S&P 500 companies have reported stronger-than-expected profits, reinforcing the bullish backdrop.
3. Inflation Concerns Are Fading
Mentions of “inflation” in S&P 500 earnings calls are at their lowest since early 2021. This reduced concern supports valuations and risk appetite.
4. Seasonal Weakness in Play
Historically, August and September are the weakest months for the S&P 500. Even with a bullish macro setup, expect choppier price action.
5. Crypto Strengthens Ahead of CPI
Ethereum has broken above $4,100, its highest level since early 2024.
Bitcoin has ended its short-term downtrend and is trading above $120,000.
If CPI meets expectations, these breakouts could attract more inflows.
Bottom Line:
The macro backdrop supports growth assets. With yields falling, earnings strong, and crypto breaking out, the bias remains bullish — but seasonal volatility means disciplined positioning is key.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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If you’re building in this environment, let’s talk strategy and liquidity solutions that work in both bullish and choppy conditions.
